Chinese Spaceplane: A Threat Analysis Lesson or a Chimera?

Morgan Phisher June 8, 2024

Hey, all you healthcare IT and cybersecurity folks over in the Bay Area! Let’s whip up a little friendly tech chat, all about those fun and fascinating hypersonic space vehicles and the rapid advancements of Chinese aerospace technology.

You know, there’s been a whole lot of buzz about China unveiling these supposedly “stealthy” jets and investing in new gear like aircraft carriers. However, how stealthy are they? And when will they get to fly them anyway? It’s kind of a head-scratcher trying to keep up with China, especially given the language barrier and their undying penchant for secrecy. Often it’s like picking out nuggets of truth from a pile of ‘maybes’.

The same applies to the discussions about China’s space programs. Most of the space tech on the cards over there can serve dual purposes. And given the slightly competitive vibes with Uncle Sam, it’s all too easy to misconstrue facts and end up pointing fingers. But seriously, we’ve seen firsthand what hasty technical assessments can do – remember Iraq and Afghanistan? Being cynical is great, but basing policy decisions on weak assessments, not so much.

Take a look at our ongoing debates about hypersonic space vehicles. Back in the late ’80s and early ’90s, the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) caught everybody’s attention, both in civil and military sectors. The possibilities seemed endless – zooming passengers from Tokyo to New York in under three hours or leveraging it as a fantastic military asset. But the program had to be canned in the early ’90s cause the tech needed was way ahead of its time.

Even so, the vision of a winged space plane continued to ignite the imagination of engineers in the United States and other countries, including China. The concept, thus, never really died.

The curiosity surrounding spaceplane tech is pretty awesome. It’s not just about the apparent military benefits but also about unravelling the full range of potential merits. For instance, all eyes are on the US X-37B test flights – people are raring to know what new magic it can conjure.

Remember, back in the ’70s, the Soviet Union was super intrigued by the development of the Space Shuttle too. It was pretty much a cat-and-mouse game, with everyone speculating about potential moves and counter moves. These episodes just exemplify the inherent intrigue associated with advancements in space technology.

But here’s the thing – historically, it’s been hard to discern fact from fiction when it comes to Chinese aerospace advancements. Allegedly, Chinese engineers in the ’80s were all for developing a shuttle rather than a capsule for their human space flight program. And there’s talk about China developing a military space plane these days. But really, are these assumptions coming from reliable sources?

There have been claims about a successful test flight announcement by a Shanxi TV station, but the claim itself is seriously sketchy. The report actually came from Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV and the reliability of that source is… kind of dubious. See, the world needs more transparency on these matters, not just speculative hype based on questionable sources.

Tech rivalry between the US and China has always been complex, right? Thanks to the dual-use nature of space technology, we find ourselves in an never-ending circuit of technical one-upmanship. Rational prudence can easily turn into knee-jerk reactions based on perceived threat, potentially escalating into a very costly tech race.

Within our own borders, we have these tough fiscal constraints hampering the technological aspirations of the U.S. military. They’re now faced with a daunting task of strategizing resource allocation for short-term and long-term advancements, which makes a thorough analysis of Chinese technology development plans all the more critical.

In short, guys, let’s be vigilant and keep ourselves informed. Dig deeper, ask questions, and separate the wheat from the chaff in this high-speed space race. Please always remember, accuracy is key. Time to roll up our sleeves and up our tech games!

by Morgan Phisher | HEAL Security